IRAN CENSURED - AT 8:23 A.M. ET:  Well, at least it's a start.  From the New York Times:

PARIS — One day after the director general of the United Nations nuclear watchdog castigated Iran for blocking inquiries into its nuclear program, the organization’s governing body voted on Friday to censure the country and demanded that it freeze operations “immediately” at a once-secret uranium enrichment plant. The panel also expressed “serious concern” about potential military aspects of Iran’s nuclear program.

The censure resolution, which passed 25-3, came after Mohamed ElBaradei, the head of the International Atomic energy Agency, declared in unusually blunt language on Thursday that Iran had stonewalled investigators about evidence that the country had worked on nuclear weapons design, and that his efforts to reveal the truth had “effectively reached a dead end.”

And...

While 6 of the governing body’s 35 nations abstained, and one was absent, the resolution had unusual backing by Russia and China, broadening the message of international displeasure with Iran that is frequently voiced in the West. But it was not immediately clear whether Moscow and Beijing would go further and support the expansion of sanctions that the Obama administration may promote.

That, of course, is a key issue.  This resolution, while desirable, has no teeth.  There's no way to enforce it.  It was easy for China and Russia to support it, then privately reassure their Iranian friends that nothing more will be done.

President Obama is approaching an end-of-year deadline to reassess whether the United States should move toward what Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton has termed “crippling sanctions” on Iran.

Words.  The U.S., on its own, could not impose crippling sanctions.  It could, of course, blockade Iranian ports, but that goes well beyond sanctions.

Israeli officials, meanwhile, have said that they will not consider taking military action until Mr. Obama’s deadline runs out, leaving hanging the suggestion — maybe the bluff — that they are preparing for that possibility in 2010.

That is the real area of international concern.  But this would be a difficult military operation, with success not guaranteed. 

COMMENT:  As with most international issues, it will be the position of the United States that will be decisive.  Thus far, that position has been weak and indecisive.  The president's address Tuesday at West Point, dealing with Afghanistan, may hint at a tougher foreign-policy line, which is certainly called for with Iran.

Watch for Iran to make some "gesture" toward the end of the year to get the U.S. to extend its deadline.  If we take that bait, we're fools.  Or at least one man is a fool.

November 27,  2009